Quarterly market commentary - June 2026
Markets delivered strong returns in the second quarter of 2026, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, higher oil prices and shifting inflation expectations.
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Markets delivered strong returns in the second quarter of 2026, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, higher oil prices and shifting inflation expectations.
Global share markets delivered exceptional returns in the second quarter of 2026, led by strong gains in developed and emerging markets.
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Markets experienced increased volatility in the first quarter of 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices and shifting inflation expectations. Our economic commentary looks at what’s behind these movements and how markets have responded.
Returns were uneven across asset classes this quarter, with developed markets and bonds declining amid geopolitical and inflation pressures. Emerging markets were more resilient, while commodity-linked markets such as Australia benefited.
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Markets remained resilient through the final quarter of 2025, supported by easing monetary policy and solid international equity performance. This economic commentary looks at what’s driving returns and the outlook as political and geopolitical events continue to dominate headlines.
The quarter delivered steady gains across most asset classes, with international shares leading returns and emerging markets outperforming developed peers. Bond markets diverged across regions, reflecting differing central bank paths, while New Zealand and Australian equities lagged global markets.
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Global share markets continued to march higher during the third quarter of the year, contributing to strong returns for most diversified investors.
The third quarter of 2025 delivered exceptional returns across the board, with progress on US trade deals, ongoing strength in the technology sector and accommodative monetary policy being the key factors driving risk-on sentiment around the world.
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The second quarter of 2025 defied expectations, with several markets reaching new highs despite ongoing geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty. Resilient businesses and steady investor sentiment helped support strong returns.
Global shares rallied in Q2 despite trade uncertainty, with emerging markets and Australia leading the way. Bonds also posted gains as central banks shifted toward easing.
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The first quarter of 2025 brought a more challenging investment environment. While some markets performed well, weakness in the US and policy uncertainty contributed to increased volatility and lower portfolio valuations. Periods like these often lay the groundwork for future opportunity.
The US and Japan declined amid policy uncertainty, while Europe and parts of emerging markets posted gains. Volatility spiked late in the quarter following new US tariff announcements, with local markets also ending the quarter lower.
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2024 closed on a positive note, with strong returns across global share markets. Despite lingering economic challenges like inflation, high interest rates and unemployment, markets remain optimistic, reflecting future expectations.
This quarter, global markets had a mixed quarter, developed markets held steady, emerging markets struggled and bonds rallied on easing inflation. Read more about the key market movements here.
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The third quarter of 2024 saw continued strong investment returns, with global interest rates beginning to decline, as central banks in the US, Europe, and beyond shifted focus towards managing economic slowdowns. While geopolitical issues remain a concern, markets have shown resilience, and lower interest rates may ease borrowing costs, positively impacting economies like New Zealand.
The third quarter of 2024 saw positive performance across most asset classes, with central bank rate cuts buoying markets despite weakening economic data. Notably, emerging markets outperformed developed markets, while AI investments faced skepticism, and New Zealand shares delivered solid gains driven by rate cuts and corporate acquisitions.
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Positive global share market momentum carried into the second quarter of 2024 for the USA, while share market returns in other regions were variable. The outlook for interest rates remained unchanged, however there is growing expectation for a general reduction in interest rates around the globe.
International share markets gained overall in the second quarter of 2024, although individual country returns were mixed. Politics was a key focus for the quarter. Outside of this, the artificial intelligence “theme” continued to lead markets, while policymakers continued to wrestle with how much (and when) to reduce interest rates.
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International share markets registered further strong gains in the first three months of 2024. A resilient US economy and ongoing investment enthusiasm for companies associated with artificial intelligence technologies were two of the key drivers.
Diversified investors had more reasons to smile as the markets began this year exactly as they left off last year - with another strong gain by most international share markets. In the absence of any major new economic or geopolitical shocks, investment sentiment continued to be closely linked to changes in the inflation and interest rate landscape. On that front, the first quarter of 2024 saw another discernible shift in inflation and interest rate expectations.
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It was most appropriate that the fourth quarter of 2023 included Christmas, as it was indeed a quarter of many happy returns. Global share markets delivered strong gains as market expectations about the future trajectory of interest rates changed markedly over the quarter.
International share markets rebounded with a strong rally over the final three months of the year. While sharply lower prices for natural gas, crude oil, and gas oil contributed to lower inflationary pressures over the quarter.
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In some welcome news, the world economy is showing signs of resilience this year despite lingering inflation and a sluggish recovery in China. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook in July, where they noted this resilience is increasing the odds that a global recession may be avoided.
After a generally good performance over the first half of 2023, international share markets gave up some of their gains in the July to September quarter.
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As the grey clouds gather for winter, it's pleasing to report the sun is still shining on portfolios. With New Zealand in a technical recession, there are signs that short-term interest rates could begin falling again in 2024.
Central banks maintained their laser-like focus on combatting inflation by continuing to raise interest rates globally during the quarter. But as these had already been factored into share prices last year, we saw most share markets still perform strongly over the quarter.
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Following an upbeat end to 2022, investment markets continued to deliver generally positive returns over the first three months of 2023. However, there are signs indicating the interest rate tightening cycle still had further to run.
Global share markets delivered further positive results in the first quarter, buoyed by a reduction in recession concerns across leading developed markets.
This is the greatest time in history to be alive. The world has seen an unbelievable amount of progress over almost any time horizon you look at.
If you needed any reminder that investment markets are forward looking, then the last quarter of 2022 provided the perfect example. Entering the final three months of the year, investors were surveying an environment that included a seemingly unending supply of negative news headlines... So, what did share markets do? They went up. In many cases, they went up strongly.
After such a challenging first three quarters of 2022, it was difficult to imagine the final quarter would deliver anything substantially different. As they say however, it is always darkest before the dawn.
It’s that time of year to muse on what you hope to accomplish over the next 12 months. The best advice when making resolutions is to set goals that are “SMART” – specific, measurable, achievable, relevant (to you) and time-bound. Once you’ve set your goals, what can help you achieve them? Based on our research, we’ve distilled 12 goal-enablers. These cover four broad principles you can use to keep yourself on track.
The global economy has been buffeted by multiple challenges in 2022 and it is fast shaping as a year not many will remember fondly. During the drawn-out lockdowns and upheaval that accompanied the peaks of Covid-19, the world collectively pined for a seamless post-Covid recovery. The reality, however, has been rather bumpy.
Volatility remained high through the third quarter of 2022 as markets priced in changing expectations on the economic impact of rapidly rising interest rates, European energy uncertainty increased, and the effects of COVID-19 continued to linger. The quarter was a story of two halves - July and August delivered some initial relief and strong returns for battered investors in both share and bond markets, and then September reversed course, wiping out the majority of the earlier gains.
Former US president Ronald Reagan called inflation “as deadly as a hit man”. And, for any investor, it’s arguably the biggest enemy you face. Part of what makes it so dangerous is that mostly you don’t notice it. Even though experience tells you that $100 today will buy you less than it did ten years ago, the erosion is normally so gradual that you don’t feel it happening.
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Shares and bonds across the board were under pressure in the second quarter of 2022, as markets priced in further increases in interest rates as well as an increased risk of recession. Amongst equities returns, which were generally poor, the MSCI World Value index significantly outperformed its Growth counterpart, although both registered double-digit declines. The Chinese share market provided a rare highlight as prolonged lockdowns were lifted in some major cities, allowing macroeconomic indicators there to show some improvement.
We are living in a time of extreme uncertainty and the anxiety that comes along with it. Against the backdrop of war, humanitarian crisis, and economic hardship, it’s natural to wonder what effect these world events will have on our long term investment performance.
Headlines were dominated this quarter by the war in Ukraine and the humanitarian crisis continuing to unfold there. The implications of the Ukraine conflict quickly fed through into increasingly volatile financial markets, with share markets declining and bond yields rising further (meaning bond prices fell) over the quarter.
With the prospect of US interest rate hikes and unrest at the Russia/Ukraine border, there were few places for investors to hide in January, as bond yields spiked and share markets waned. Growth-tilted sectors such as information technology and consumer discretionary bore the brunt of the pain, while the energy sector generally performed strongly.
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Investors in global equity portfolios inevitably face periods of geopolitical tensions. Sometimes these events lead to restrictions, sanctions, and other types of market disruptions. We cannot predict when these events will occur or exactly what form they will take. However, we can plan for them by managing diversified portfolios and building flexibility into our process.
As we watch events in the Ukraine unfold, many Synergy investors are asking which investment fund managers have exposure to Russian assets, and how they are dealing with these investments going forward? Synergy portfolios contain eight managers with strategies that potentially have exposure to Russian companies in their funds.
In the midst of such turmoil, markets have operated exactly as they should. Global uncertainty has increased. As a result, buyers require a higher expected return from purchasing shares. They achieve those higher expected returns by purchasing at lower prices. Sellers, meanwhile, are happy to accept a lower price and a resulting lower realised return in order to reduce their uncertainty.
The fourth quarter of 2021 rounded out another year when developed share markets posted strong returns, despite ongoing uncertainties relating to global supply chains, inflation, interest rates and, of course, emerging variants of Covid-19.
The quarter started on a positive note for most share markets which, aside from a November lull, mostly ended the year strongly. It was a slightly different story in bond markets, with a weak start extending to early November, and generally a small recovery thereafter.
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Synergy Investments has pushed above $800 million in a year that has seen stellar growth and the addition of five new Morningstar model portfolios to the discretionary investment management service (DIMS).
While it’s human nature to enjoy seeing the value of your investment portfolio increasing quickly, it’s also not reasonable for us to expect large gains each quarter. In fact, if markets ever get too far ahead of themselves, it could increase the chances of a future correction. In that context, a small positive return can sometimes be more reassuring than a large one.
The quarter started on a positive note for most markets, but gains generally eased in September, amid concerns of rising inflation, worries about China, and energy shortages in Europe.
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It still seems extraordinary that something we knew virtually nothing about just 18 months ago, has so utterly dominated global news, our feelings of economic and personal wellbeing, and the normal functioning of our daily lives, ever since.
The second quarter of 2021 again saw generally positive returns for riskier assets. Many developed nations saw falling rates of Covid-19 infection, resulting in a loosening of restrictions which helped propel economic output and consumer spending. These, in turn, strengthened the outlook for future economic growth and pushed markets higher.
New Zealand investors are continuing to show more interest in products with environmental and socially responsible considerations; more and more Kiwi investors want to know where their hard-earned savings are being invested, and that the companies they are investing in operate in a manner that is consistent with their values. The same trend is being observed worldwide.
In the context of a long term investment plan, a single year is not a very long time. That said, it’s difficult to write this particular report without reflecting, at least a little, on what an extraordinary year we have all just experienced.
The first quarter of 2021 saw broadly positive returns for riskier assets supported by the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccines, paired with ongoing supportive fiscal and monetary policy.
Since last quarter, Consilium has been working on a number of Synergy portfolios, as we look to deliver better overall investment outcomes to Synergy investors. In this article, we explore how these recent changes to portfolios deliver lower fund manager fees for investors, better expected risk/return profiles and growing emphasis on the environmental and social characteristics of our SRI portfolios.
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Day after day we are bombarded by the media and at the moment, we are seeing nothing but bad news. Coverage of the share market is full of headlines with words such as “plunge”, “recession” and “loss” repeated over and over again.
A couple of weeks ago, with the Covid-19 pandemic evolving around the world, we knew it would only be a short time until it reached our shores and affected our lives and business. And we wanted to make sure that the Consilium Service Team would be ready.
It was March 2nd 2009 and across America people woke up to the headline,"Stocks fall to lowest level since 1997 as Dow drops below 6,800.” The expectations were that it would go even lower and for good reason.
These are extraordinary times. Although the immediate outlook with respect to Covid-19 remains unclear, times like this provide a stark reminder of the importance of having a financial plan and undertaking regular planning meetings.